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Doug Gamble- Contributor

Doug Gamble is a former writer for President Ronald Reagan and resides in Carmel. [go to Gamble index]

Advantage: Boxer
Incumbent has big money edge on Jones and her best approval ratings yet
[Doug Gamble] 3/17/04

The California Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Bill Jones, piloted his single-engine Cessna from Fresno to Sacramento last week to kick off his campaign against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Still up in the air is whether he has a solid strategy to defeat the incumbent or whether he'll end up flying by the seat of his pants.

Although Jones, a former assemblyman, California secretary of state and 2002 gubernatorial primary candidate, handily defeated his closest rival in the March 2 primary, he was held to less than 50 percent of the vote despite the advantage of name recognition and the backing of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Govs. George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson. While Jones was the choice of 44 percent of GOP voters, Rosario Marin, former treasurer in the current Bush administration, surprised pundits by finishing with a little over 20 percent despite polls that consistently had her around 9 percent.

As was the scenario in 1992 and 1998, when Republicans believed Boxer could be defeated, the vision of victory could again prove a mirage. So far the same pattern is unfolding, with Boxer looking vulnerable in the year before the election only to gain strength once the battle is joined.

And Jones' strategy appears to be one that has failed to sway voters in the past, bashing Boxer as a liberal out of touch with mainstream Californians. Elections are usually a referendum on the incumbent, and, while Boxer's liberalism is a legitimate target for criticism, it has not turned out to be a compelling enough reason to replace her.

While Boxer's job approval rating languished below 50 percent most of last year, an exit poll taken March 2 showed that 61 percent of voters believe she is now doing a good job, the highest mark she has ever received as senator. And although polls in 2003 showed her in a tight race against a generic Republican challenger, Boxer - who launched her campaign yesterday with rallies in San Francisco and Los Angeles - currently holds a 10-point lead over Jones.

With money a huge factor in California election races, Jones may find himself in the same position as two years ago when a lack of funds kept him from mounting an effective campaign against Bill Simon and Richard Riordan in the gubernatorial primary. Latest figures show Boxer with $5.3 million in the bank compared to Jones' $212,000, in a state where TV ad buys, to be effective, can drain as much as $2 million a week from campaign coffers.

Although it appears the White House has grudgingly forgiven Jones for abandoning George W. Bush in 2000 in favor of John McCain, the amount of money the national GOP is willing to pour into California is in doubt. Jones is not exactly Bush's favorite candidate, and, if it looks like Boxer is headed for a third term, it could be decided that national campaign funds are better spent in Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado and Alaska, where Senate races are more competitive and where the Democrats are aiming to pick up Republican seats.

To the extent the unanimous endorsement of Jones by the party establishment helped him become the nominee, Republicans may have erred by dismissing Marin. Unlike the Jones-Boxer race, which will probably be a yawner, a challenge to Boxer by an accomplished Latina with an inspiring life story might have generated some excitement drawing national media attention, with Marin benefiting from the coverage.

Although there are approximately 7 percentage points more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, Marin, with a fresh face and approach, might have been able to overcome that disadvantage, whereas Boxer and Jones will likely pick up votes pretty much along party lines.

The bad news for California Republicans is that Boxer appears on track to win re-election. The good news is that the GOP has a rising star in Marin, and she will have her day. CRO

Copyright 2004 Doug Gamble

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