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Gordon Cucullu- Contributor

Former Green Beret lieutenant colonel, Gordon Cucullu is now an editorialist, author and a popular speaker. Born into a military family, he lived and served for more than thirteen years in East Asia, including eight years in Korea. For his Special Forces service in Vietnam he was awarded a Bronze Star, Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry, and the Presidential Unit Commendation. After separation from the Army, he worked on Korea and East Asian affairs at both the Pentagon and Department of State as well as an executive for General Electric in Korea. His first major non-fiction work, Separated at Birth: How North Korea became the Evil Twin, is based in large part on his extensive experience in Korea and East Asia as a governmental insider and businessman. [website] [go to Cucullu index]

Imagine a War that Wasn’t
What if Saddam was still in power?...
[Gordon Cucullu] 7/23/04

As Yogi Berra famously said, ‘predictions are difficult, especially about the future.’ They’re also difficult about the past, but if we’re honest the ‘what if’ look at history helps put the present into perspective. So let’s speculate for a moment and imagine what would have happened – or not – if the US, UK and coalition forces had not attacked Iraq in 2003 and deposed dictator Saddam Hussein.

• Given that Iraqi children were reported to be dying at the rate of 300-plus daily in March 2003 we could immediately extrapolate that more than 135,000 children would have died. Add the fact that more than 400,000 children who would not have received life-saving immunizations have now been inoculated against disease.
• The mass graves – estimated at 300,000-500,000 killed and rising daily as new sites are uncovered – would continue to be filled.
• Torture chambers, rape rooms, secret police and pathological Baathist leaders would continue to prey on Iraqi people.
• The Sunni minority would continue to dominate, and Saddam would continue to deny basic human rights to Shias and Kurds.
• The Marsh Arabs would become extinct.
• Al Qaeda would formalize a relationship with Saddam – although keeping it secret. Bin Laden’s terrorists would work with Saddam to plan a massive attack on the US and Britain that would involve the use of poison gas and ‘dirty’ weapons.
• The terrorist training camp at Salman Pak would expand and teach aircraft hijack techniques and deployment of poison gas and biological weapons.
• Saddam would have received the yellowcake uranium from Niger that he ordered – possibly while Joe Wilson was enjoying endless cups of ‘sweet tea’ - and be well on his way to developing nuclear and radiological weapons.
• Saddam, working with the North Koreans, would have upgraded and improved his intermediate range missiles and be capable of hitting targets in western Europe. These missiles would be capable of carrying a chemical or biological warhead.
• His scientists will have produced sufficient quantities of biological weapons to enable him to funnel them to terrorist groups to use in specific attacks in America and Great Britain or, by placing them on missiles, threaten his regional enemies including Israel.
• The fraud levels in the UN Oil for Food program would amount to even more billions and billions of dollars annually, enabling Saddam to upgrade his weapons systems by purchases from Russia, France and North Korea.
• Meanwhile, more and more Iraqi people would die in squalor and disease while Saddam and his cohorts grew wealthier and more decadent.
• Uday and Qusay Hussein would continue their terror campaign against the Iraqi people.
• Suicide bombing in Israel would grow to appalling levels sponsored by Iraq. Arafat would grow stronger and a new conflict might erupt in the Middle East. If war breaks out Iraq comes in with full array of ‘banned’ weapons. Israel can be expected to retaliate with weapons up to nuclear arms.
• Libya proceeds apace with development of nuclear weapons. Crack UN weapons inspectors (IAEA) remain in blissful ignorance of the program.
• Pakistani leadership, bending to the radical element, offers the Taliban and al Qaeda a safe haven in Pakistan along the Afghanistan border. The war rages. US-Pakistani relations deteriorate and tension between India and Pakistan rises to new heights, China expresses ‘concern.’
• North Korea, fed by fresh influx of cash from Iraq and wealthy Saudis, accelerates development of nuclear weapons, expands R&D in missile technology and openly sells these products to any and all comers. Relations in Northeast Asia deteriorate and Japan prepares to announce possession of nuclear weapons. This begins a chain of events that bode ill for all concerned (see my forthcoming book, Separated at Birth: How North Korea became the Evil Twin, for details on this nasty scenario.)
• The ayatollahs in Iran develop a clandestine relationship with Iraq based on a ‘hate Israel-hate US’ commonality of policy. Terrorism ratchets up dramatically. Combined operations against the US are planned and carried out.
• Saudi Arabia buys off the terrorists with increasingly higher payoffs permitting safe haven bases in Pakistan to develop and for fifth column madrassas in the US and around the globe to expand and propagandize.
• President Bush and VP Cheney are viciously criticized by Democrats for permitting US security to deteriorate, for not acting properly post-9-11 and for standing idly by while terrorism flourished. Democratic presidential candidates pledge to energize the UN and our European allies to put a stop to all this. They propose a campaign of very aggressive, almost fierce negotiations and talks and will not stop until they have convinced Saddam to relent.
• French President Jacques Chirac praises America for inaction, noting that ‘French leadership again triumphs over American cowboy tendencies.’ His Swiss bank account balance – bumped appreciably thanks to Oil for Food and side deals with the Saddam regime - brings a smile to his rugged visage.
• UN Secretary General Kofi Anan – on advice from son Kojo who is helping out with the Oil for Food program – decides that the estate in Provance is affordable after all.
• Terror ‘Czar’ Richard Clarke testifies before Congress that he begged the Bush administration to go to war with Iraq but they were too ignorant to understand the evidence and refused to act. Clarke apologizes to the American people for the Bush inaction.
• Senator Ted Kennedy says that ‘failure to act forcibly against Saddam – unilaterally if necessary - demonstrates the abject level of timidity that characterizes the Bush administration.’ Senator John Kerry vows that ‘since I learned war the hard way in Vietnam, I can lead this nation in a just war.’ Senator Hillary Clinton demands an investigation. Senator Charles Schumer suggests that Congress pass a bill outlawing Saddam’s guns. Senator Patrick Leahy is discovered weeping in the Senate cloak room because Dick Cheney spoke harshly to him.
• Film maker and propagandist Michael Moore releases a pseudo-documentary titled ‘Baghdad Blues’ showing the horrid existence of Iraqi citizens and juxtaposes that against the Bush administration unwillingness to assist. Bush on the golf course dismisses the idea of helping Iraqis then asks reporters to ‘watch my drive.’ CRO

copyright Gordon Cucullu 2004

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